Market Comments

Weekly Market Comments for the Week Ending Friday June 10th

Markets closed higher Monday to start off the new week on a high note.  Grains traded lower last week based on optimistic views of the possibility of a grain corridor out of Ukraine, but Russia’s new offensive is curbing the optimism.  Russia bombed a grain export facility in Ukraine over the weekend, making it increasingly clear that they’re trying to take over the entire Black Sea coast.  This increase in Russian aggression has some traders nervous again about the supply of global wheat and corn again, due to the lack of available Black Sea region supply.

Markets were mixed Tuesday after corn and beans benefited from the warmer and drier two-week forecast.  The extended forecast is getting more threatening for a majority of the belt, and although conditions are pretty good right now, that can change in a hurry if a dry pattern sets in and sticks around.  Traders viewed that as a positive item for prices Tuesday.  Initial crop rating came back better than expected for corn, with 73% good-to-excellent.  Both corn and beans have essentially caught up or exceeded the average planting percentage compared to normal.

Markets closed higher Wednesday following a meeting between Turkish officials and Russia’s Foreign Minister.  Russia claims that if Ukraine wants to resume grain shipments, they need to de-mine the export facilities, and that Russia has already made the necessary commitments.  Ukraine says that Turkey isn’t powerful enough to protect the Ukrainian ships, and therefore other navies need to get involved to patrol the region.  Russia, of course, isn’t going to allow this to happen, and therefore will continue blocking the export of grains from Ukraine.

Markets closed mixed Thursday ahead of the USDA releasing the June WASDE report, which was released this morning.  No major changes were expected in the US supply and demand figures, with only a small change expected with the bean exports increasing.  Russia has reported that no agreement was made with Turkish officials to open an export corridor for Ukrainian grain.  They say that a deal will only be made if NATO and the West drop all sanctions, which won’t be happening.

Markets closed mixed today after the June WASDE report was released at 11am, with no big surprises.  Only minor changes were made to the US supply and demand numbers, and those changes were expected.  Also going along with expectation was the fact that there was no change made to the current crop’s production estimates.  These markets have already factored in this report and turned its attention to next week.  Weather is going to be the driver as forecasts continue to call for warmer and drier weather for most of the US growing region.  The 4-5 days of hot weather in the forecast isn’t necessarily concerning, but if that pattern turns into an extended period of time it could be threatening.  Neither the US or global supplies can handle a large weather loss in the US, especially with the already tight stocks and the large losses in multiple other major producing areas, such as South America for beans and India for wheat.

Friday June 10th

It is currently 11:19, with corn and milo trading 1 lower for old crop and unchanged for new crop.  Beans are trading 13 and 12 lower for old and new crop, respectively.  Wheat is 3 cents higher.